Why Do We Play More When The Jackpot Is Rolled Over?

Roll-over jackpots occur when there are no winners in a lottery draw, causing the main prize to be transferred to the next draw. This process can repeat for weeks or even months, creating jackpots that can reach astronomical figures, often surpassing hundreds of millions or even billions of dollars.

One of the most notable examples of this phenomenon occurred in January 2016, when the Powerball prize in the United States reached a record $1.586 billion. The jackpot was so high that it generated worldwide interest, with people from all over the world attempting to participate, even if they had to buy tickets online through intermediaries.

Another interesting case is Mega Millions, also in the United States, which in October 2018 rolled over to a $1.537 billion jackpot, the second-largest in history. These exorbitant amounts spark a special fascination, leading millions of people to play, even those who don't usually buy tickets regularly.

But what drives so many people to bet during these times, knowing that the chances of winning are so small?

There are several psychological reasons that explain why roll-over jackpots have such a strong appeal:

The Scarcity Effect

One of the main reasons roll-over jackpots attract so many bets is the scarcity effect. Prizes of this size don't happen frequently, which creates a sense of a unique opportunity. The mere fact that these prizes are not available every day increases their perceived value. People tend to value something more when it is rare and hard to obtain, and this perception makes the roll-over jackpot seem like an opportunity that cannot be missed.

The Illusion of Control

Another psychological factor at play is the illusion of control. Many people believe that they can increase their chances of winning by choosing "special" numbers or using specific strategies, such as always playing the same numbers or selecting a combination they consider "lucky". This false sense of control over the outcome makes them feel more confident about betting, especially when the prize is very large.

The Power of Hope

The power of hope is perhaps the strongest element in the appeal of roll-over jackpots. When a prize reaches such high values, it represents much more than just money; it symbolizes the fulfillment of all dreams. People begin to imagine what it would be like to win and what they would do with the money, creating scenarios where their lives change radically. This hope, no matter how unlikely its realization, is incredibly powerful and motivating.

Social Influence

Social influence also plays an important role. When jackpots hit high values, the media starts to cover the event more intensely, creating a lot of buzz. This constant coverage makes people feel that everyone is playing, and the social pressure to participate also increases. In many cases, people buy tickets simply because they don't want to miss out on this opportunity.

Devaluation of Probability

A common phenomenon among lottery players is the devaluation of probability, where people underestimate the difficulty of winning. When faced with the tiny chance of winning a jackpot, many people simply ignore the statistics and focus on the possibility that "someone has to win." This simplistic thinking, combined with the disproportionately high value of the prize, leads people to believe that it's worth taking the risk.

An interesting study was conducted in Spain, where the Christmas lottery, known as "El Gordo", is an annual event. Although it is not a typical rollover jackpot, the large prize and the collective spirit surrounding the draw create an effect similar to large rollover jackpots. Ticket sales reach extraordinary peaks, with millions of people buying tickets in groups, with family, or among friends. This shows how much people are attracted to large prizes and the social experience surrounding them.

Another example comes from the United Kingdom, where EuroMillions, a European lottery, experienced a massive increase in ticket sales when the prize hit £170 million in October 2019. Camelot, the lottery operator, reported an increase of more than 200% in ticket sales in the weeks leading up to the draw. This shows how the anticipation around a large prize can directly influence player behavior.

In the United States, Powerball and Mega Millions frequently see significant increases in sales when the prizes are high. During the Powerball draw in 2016, for example, ticket sales increased exponentially as the prize climbed, culminating in a total of more than 635 million tickets sold for that specific draw.

In Brazil, although the Mega da Virada draw is not a typical rollover contest, the prize amount is quite high and does not roll over. According to data from Caixa Econômica Federal, in 2023 more than 350 million bets were registered across the country, generating revenue of over R$ 1.2 billion.

The fascination with rollover jackpots is a complex phenomenon driven by a combination of psychological, social, and economic factors. The rarity of the event, the illusion of control, the hope of a transformed life, social pressure, and the devaluation of probability combine to create a powerful attraction that leads millions of people to play.

Although the chances of winning are small, the simple act of participating offers players a glimpse of what it would be like to achieve their most audacious dreams. And as long as the dream stays alive, the lottery will continue to be a global phenomenon, especially when prizes roll over and expectations reach a fever pitch.

By understanding the reasons that lead us to play more during these periods, we can take a more conscious and balanced approach, enjoying the thrill of the game without compromising our financial security or emotional well-being. After all, in the lottery, as in many aspects of life, the important thing is knowing where the line is between dream and reality.